Saturday, Del Mar will play host to the Hollywood Derby. The Hollywood Derby had always been held at Hollywood Park until the racetrack was shut down in 2014, and then Del Mar became the host. It wasn’t until 1974 that it became a graded race and really started attracting the best horses from across the country to compete in the race. In 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner California Chrome won the Hollywood Derby in Del Mar’s first year of hosting it.
Last year, odds on favorite, Mo Forza was able to come away with the win by a length. That was one of 6 career wins for Mo Forza as he has racked up $750,000 in earnings.
The field in the 2020 Hollywood Derby doesn’t have that type of star power, but it is certainly a deep race with a field of 13 and 7 to 8 logical contenders for the win. Below we will take a look at each horses chances to win the 2020 Hollywood Derby.
Horse-By-Horse Analysis:
#1 Kanderel – Ridden by Giovanni Franco and trained by Richard Mandella. This is probably the longest shot in the field, and one of the few who doesn’t stand much of a chance. The good news for this horse is he is coming off 3 straight career races. The bad news is none of those races resulted in a victory, and they aren’t good enough to do any damage against this field. One bright spot is Richard Mandella is having a solid start to the Del Mar meet. In 15 races his horses have 7 wins, 2 seconds, and 4 third place finishes.
#2 Smooth Like Strait – Ridden by Umberto Rispoli and trained by Michael McCarthy. This is a horse that looks to have a real shot in here. This one has solid early speed so he should be sitting real close to the front and have first run on some of the deeper closers in here. He is also 2-2 on the Del Mar turf course, and is coming into the race after winning the Grade 2 Twilight at Santa Anita in which he went 1 1/8 mile for the first time. Umberto Rispoli has ridden this horse twice, and in both occasions came away with victory. There is plenty to like about Smooth Like Strait.
#3 Scarto – Ridden by Manny Franco and trained by Mike Puype. Last time out he finished 2nd to the #2 Smooth Like Strait in the Twilight Derby. Now, if you believe that Smooth Like Strait has a chance in here like I do, then you also have to consider this one. His price is likely to be significantly more attractive as well. Prior to the 2nd place finish he had 2 wins in a row coming from way off the pace. I think Manny Franco will have Scarto sitting closer to the pace this time in order to have a chance.
#4 Taishan – Ridden by Jose Valdivia Jr and trained by Richard Baltas. This was a highly thought of colt earlier in 2020. He was on the Derby Trail and raced in the top races such as the Sham Stakes, Southwest Stakes, Arkansas Derby, and Indiana Derby. Unfortunately, for Taishan it never really worked out on dirt and then they switched him to turf for the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill Downs. He ran a huge race there, and it looked like they may have found something. His last race was a 7th place finish at Keeneland, but that is a very deceiving 7th place as he lost by just 1 length in a blanket finish at the wire. This is another horse that has a good shot at a big price.
#5 Storm The Court – Ridden by Juan Hernandez and trained by Peter Eurton. This is one that I think is a little overrated based on the morning line. In his 2 year old year he had a huge upset at 45-1 in the Breeders’ Cup, but since then he hasn’t won a race. This will only be his 2nd try on the turf as he finished 2nd at Del Mar in August in his turf debut. In that race Smooth Like Strait easily handled Storm The Court by more than 2 lengths, and it seems like this is a race where you’d rather Scarto or Taishan at better prices than what you’re likely to get on Storm The Court.
#6 California Kook – Ridden by Ricardo Gonzalez and trained by Peter Miller. Comes in here after facing top competition at Del Mar and Keeneland. In 3 starts over the Del Mar turf he has a pair of 2nd place finishes. He ran very well in both the Del Mar Oaks and the Del Mar Derby. The problem here is he is likely to be sitting well back off the pace, and will have too much ground to make up. Given the fact he is going to be such a long shot tells you how deep this field is because it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if California Kook pulled off this upset.
#7 Strongconstitution – Ridden by Abel Cedillo and trained by Doug O’neill. He has done very well in 7 career starts coming into this one, but he hasn’t done it against good competition which makes this horse very interesting. He comes into this race sharp after winning the Let It Ride at Del Mar. That race is 8 furlongs and this is 9 furlongs which he has never tried, but he was rallying and had plenty left in the tank so the distance shouldn’t be a huge issue here. The biggest issue is the step up in competition, but if he is ready for the challenge then you will be getting a huge price on this horse. Again, this another longshot that has a chance.
#8 Domestic Spending – Ridden by Irad Ortiz and trained by Chad Brown. Chad Brown teaming up with Irad Ortiz on a turf horse means this horse is absolutely is a threat. Chad Brown is the premier turf trainer in the United States and when he and Irad Ortiz team up it is very dangerous. They have won 25% together which is very good and profitable figure. As for Domestic Spending, he hasn’t done anything wrong either. In 4 career starts he has 3 wins and a third. Two starts back he lost to #10 Decorated Invader, and then after that came back to beat #13 Gufo. Both of those horses also have big chances in here. I like the fact Domestic Spending will be sitting mid-pack as there should be enough speed in here to set it up for a horse like this.
#9 Get Smokin – Ridden by Mike Smith and trained by Thomas Bush. This is the likely front runner here in the Hollywood Derby. If you want to bet on the horse that is going to be in front as they turn for him then this is your horse. The question as always will be can he hold on. I say no, and that will be due to Smooth Like Strait providing just enough pace pressure to have Get Smokin fade. This will be his first run over the Del Mar turf course, but in his only 1 1/8 mile race he had a strong 2nd place finish behind Decorated Invader at Saratoga in July.
#10 Decorated Invader – Ridden by Joel Rosario and trained by Cristophe Clement. You just know exactly what you’re going to get from this horse before you even bet on him. This is a hard knocking colt who gives max effort with each trip. In 9 career starts he has 5 wins and a pair of second place finishes. While I like others in here a little more you certainly can’t ignore this one.
#11 Ever Dangerous – Ridden by Victor Espinoza and trained by George Weaver. Comes in here off 2 straight wins, and looked good in those 2 races. The problem is those weren’t against any type of competition, and when he did race against horses in this race he finished a well beaten 5th. In that race Decorated Invader, Get Smokin, and Domestic Spending were just way too much for him. He starts off as a better price than some other longshots, but I would certainly put this horse near the bottom of the pack here.
#12 Lane Way – Ridden by Drayden Van Dyke and trained by Richard Mandella. Finished 3rd as the favorite in the Let It Ride in which Strongconstitution won. This horse was a $550,000 purchase so they believe there is a lot of promise here and expectations here. I like the fact they are stretching him out to 1 and 1/8 and putting this horse in a spot in which it seems like it would be too strong. Drayden Van Dyke is one of the top riders in California so there could be a shot for an upset with this one.
#13 Gufo – Ridden by Flavian Prat and trained by Christophe Clement. Comes into this race winning 5 of 6 and the race he lost was by a head to Domestic Spending in the Saratoga Invitational. You really can’t complain about anything he has done throughout the career, but there is one major problem here through no fault of his own. The draw of the 13 post couldn’t be any worse. Now he does take back so it won’t be an absolute killer. He isn’t likely to be hung 4 wide because he can come out of the gate and just immediately work left towards the rail. The problem is, now that means he has to have the perfect set-up with pace and has to have no traffic trouble. This is the perfect distance, and he is the most talented horse in the race. Can he overcome the 13 post to win is the only question.
The picks:
1: 8 Domestic Spending
2: 13 Gufo
3: 2 Smooth Like Strait
4: 3 Scarto
