New York’s final Grade 1 stakes of 2020, the Cigar Mile, anchors a fantastic stakes card at Aqueduct that includes the G3 Go For Wand and the G2 juvenile showcases of the Demoiselle and Remsen. The Cigar Mile goes as Race 10 at Aqueduct.
Five millionaire earners are in the cast, including G1 winners MIND CONTROL and FIRENZE FIRE, as well as two-time Cigar Mile-placed TRUE TIMBER. SNAPPER SINCLAIR and MR. BUFF have topped the million-dollar plateau. KING GUILLERMO is G1-placed and a G2 winner this year.
You’d expect a bit more early speed in this lineup than there appears to be. MR. BUFF dedicates himself to the front, regardless of distance, and he’s the only pure speedball entered. Rail-drawn PERFORMER likely will be near the pace, as will FIRENZE FIRE and KING GUILLERMO. The midpackers and closers will have their work cut out for them trying to reel in the aforementioned group.
In the 2019 Cigar Mile Maximum Security continued his impressive career when besting a field of 11 by more than 3 lengths as the heavy favorite. That would mark his 7th career win, and he is now up 10 wins and $12 million in earnings in just 14 career starts.
Horse-By-Horse Analysis:
#1 Performer – Ridden by Joel Rosario and trained by Claude Mcgaughey. We start off with what is going to be one of the 2 favorites in this race. Performer has done almost nothing wrong to begin his career. His debut race he finished 3rd at Aqueduct in 2018. Since then he has rattled off 5 straight wins, and looked impressive while doing so. He was injured late in 2019, and sidelined until returning at Belmont in October. They put him in against very weak competition in the return race and he dominated as he should against that type of competition. However, for as heavy of a favorite as he is he has run only once in 2020 and only has 1 grade 3 win to his name thus far. Not sure if I like the short price here.
#2 Mind Control – Ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Greg Sacco. Comes in to this race in very poor form only being able muster a pair of 3rd place finishes in the last 5 races, but he has a ton of back class. At one point just a year ago he won the Grade 1 Alan Jerkins, Grade 3 Toboggan, and Grade 3 Tom Fool. He can absolutely run against this type of competition, but given the stumbles he has had lately it makes him a longshot in this race. Should he return to form though this is a longshot play that could pay big.
#3 Snapper Sinclair – Ridden by Manny Franco and trained by Steve Asmussen. Given Snapper Sinclair’s statistics the move from turf back to the dirt surface is interesting. So far on dirt he has 1 win in 15 starts and none of those came in his last 7 dirt starts. He has however won 2 races on turf in 7 tries. He has tactical speed, and should sit a nice trip, but unless there is mass improvement on the dirt versus these then I don’t see much hope.
#4 Firenze Fire – Ridden by Jose Lezcano and trained by Kelly Breen. For the most part Firenze Fire runs the same exact race every time. He will sit just off the pace around 3rd or 4th, and give every ounce of effort down the stretch. Sometimes it’s good (12 wins) sometimes it’s not (30 starts). I don’t see much changing here, and against these it very well could be one of those good times. He has a pair of Grade 2 wins in the last 5 months, and finished a very nice 3rd place in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last time out. He has 3 wins in 6 starts at the mile distance.
#5 Mr. Buff – Ridden by Junior Alvarado and trained by John C Kimmel. Could be the front runner in this race, but in reality this horse is overrated in this spot. Generally he runs against only New York bred horses, and he absolutely dominates them. Here are Mr. Buff’s statistics when he steps into races such as this one – 5 prior starts in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races, facing a total of 39 other horses in those 5 races, and has beaten just 3 of those horses. He’s a 6 year old who has tried this before, and is taking 1 last shot at it again. I just can’t trust this one to win to start beating quality horses such as these all of a sudden.
#6 King Guillermo – Ridden by Jose Ortiz and trained Juan Avila. King Guillermo stunned the field at the Tampa Bay Derby back in March when winning the race very impressively at 50-1. He then ran in the Arkansas Derby and finished 2nd behind the super talented Nadal. Since then though he has been sidelined, and this is a tough spot to jump into coming off a 6 month lay-off. With that being said trainer Juan Avila is very good at getting his horses ready off this type of lay-off, as he has won 30% of them in 2020. I don’t mind him in this spot, but then the hope is that he is ready.
#7 Majestic Dunhill – Ridden by Dylan Davis and trained by George Weaver. He just ran at Aqueduct 6 days ago in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight. He made no impact on that 7 horse field finishing in 7th well beaten. Now prior to that he won the Grade 3 Bold Ruler and looked good in doing so. I think the last race was an outlier, and that is why they are returning him to the track after just 6 days. I am not sure he has enough to win against this group, but he is certainly an interesting longshot.
#8 True Timber – Ridden by Kendrick Carmouche and trained by Jack Sisterson – Just 4 wins in 28 lifetime starts, and none of those wins are against competition as good as this. He did run very well in the 2018 Cigar Mile finishing in 2nd behind PatternRecognition. Last year in the Cigar Mile he finished 3rd behind Maximum Security and Spun to Run. He is certainly good enough to run in this type of race, but he is very hard to back in the win pool.
#9 Bon Raison – Ridden by Jorge Vargas and trained by Jack Sisterson – This is the other Jack Sisterson trainee, and truthfully he probably has less of a chance to win that True Timber does. Last time out in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint he finished 10th well beaten. He has sprung a few upsets in his career, but every time he races against solid competition he is just way overmatched. He would need to summon a career-best race to pull off an upset in here. I am betting on the fact that it won’t happen.
The Picks:
1: #6 King Guillermo
2: #1 Performer
3: #4 Firenze Fire
4: #2 Mind Control
