USA Pferderennen Tipps – Woche 21

Samstag, 30. Mai, Santa Anita Park Rennen 2

#1 Rossman – Has burned money the last two times out. He went favored 2 starts back and finished a disappointing 5^th. He was then well backed into favoritism again last time out and once again disappointe, finishing 3rd. He has tactical speed, and gets Abel Cedillo to hop aboard here, but given the recent form I just tend to look elsewhere.

#2 Shanghai Curly – Has only had 2 career starts, and both of those were against much better. The drop in class is likely going to be able to help this one take a step forward for trainer Phil Oviedo. Oviedo has only 8 starts at the meet so far, but has won 3 of those 8. When teaming up Pereira and Oviedo win 26% of the time. Sometimes it just easy to stick with a hot jockey/trainer combo.

#3 Sensuous – Has 4 career starts and so far his best finish was a well beaten 4^th by 9 lengths in just a field of 5. This horse would have a lot of improving to do before I can back him in any wager. I will certainly look elsewhere, and hope I don’t get burned here.

Direkt nach Santa Anita Park – Rennen 2

#4 Four O’Five – Is an interesting first time starter for trainer Richard Baltas. The work tab has been solid leading up, but not much confidence being shown with the jockey pick of Victor Flores who has just 2 wins in 38 starts. I will see how this horse is being bet before making a decision, but I can say that I am leading towards staying away completely at this time.

#5 Italian Fighter – Is going to have a tough time of it here in this race. He is a first time starter, for a trainer that has never won with a first time starter, and hasn’t been working very well in the mornings. Jockey Eswan Flores has just 3 wins in 66 starts so far at Santa Anita.

#6 Seizetheday Rexy – Is the horse to beat and your likely favorite here in this race. He is taking a sizable drop in class, and simply the class of this field coming in. He does have three straight second place finishes on the resume, and he may of just found a soft enough to field to finally graduate from the maiden ranks in this one.

#7 Calder Vale – Has had an incredible 28 chances to score his first victory, and has yet to cash in on any opportunity. He also only has three 2^nd place finishes in those 28 starts. I just can’t back a horse that has had 28 tries, and has yet to win especially with plenty of chances coming at this level and against a few of these horses.

1: #2 Shanghai Curly
2: #6 Seizetheday Rexy
3: #1 Rossman
4: #7 Calder Vale

Rennergebnisse:

Samstag, 30. Mai, Santa Anita Park Rennen 1

#1 Warrior’s Moon – Had been racing in a few stakes races prior to this one, and she was holding in her own in a few of those as well. Last time out she was overmatched in the Evening Jewel when she was beaten by 9 lengths in a 7^th place finish. She certainly drops in class and catches a softer field here. I think getting back to turf which she certainly wants, and finding a soft spot like this will give her a big chance in this race.

#2 Oh Pretty Woman – Was victorious 2 starts back, and then just missed by a length last time out. She is obviously in very good form coming into this one, and Abel Cedillo is hopping back aboard which is a bonus since he was the jockey in the lone victory. She’ll certainly be one of the favorites and deservedly so. Jockey Abel Cedillo and trainer Jeff Mullins have combined to win 47% of the time they team up.

#3 Swing Thoughts – Will have to step forward in a major way in order to find the winner circle in this one. Two starts back she faced Oh Pretty Woman and was soundly beaten by 7 lengths while finishing 6^th. She came back off that effort and finished 2^nd, but that was going 5 and a half furlongs. She stretches back out to a mile here, and there are just simply others with a better shot.

Direkt nach Santa Anita Park – Rennen 1

#4 Hot On the Trail – Will be one of the longer shots on the board, and it makes sense. Despite finishing 2^nd last time out she jumps up in class here, and loses the services of jockey Abel Cedillo. Pick up rider Tiago Pereira will have a lot to do on this one who has yet to finish better than 3^rd at Santa Anita in 5 career starts.

#5 Marjorie E – Has been racing at this level most of her career. She had a stretch of 9 straight starts at this level, and wasn’t able to come away with a single victory. I can’t imagine that starts now, especially facing a tougher field than she usually goes up against. She is capable of a top 3 finish, but I would be hesitant to play her at all.

#6 Nocherylikemychery – Was finally able to get the breakthrough victory last time out going a mile on the turf with Flavian Prat aboard. She loses jockey Flavian Prat for this race though, and is facing winners for the first time. This is a pretty big step up for this filly, and there isn’t much that she has shown to give hope in this race.

#7 Brahms Command – Certainly has an outside chance here given that she may be the pace of the race in this one. She has had her struggles hanging on to that lead, but it is difficult to see anyone else really wanting the lead. If jockey Mario Gutierrez can ration some of the speed of Brams Command she could stick around for quite a while in this one.

#8 California Kook – Ran an absolutely huge race last time out at 40-1 odds. She broke slowly in the $200K California Oaks, and then had to swing wide into the stretch and still managed a very good 4^th place finish beaten by just 3 lengths. She obviously finds a softer field here, and it may be just easy enough for her to get a 2^nd victory. Jockey Flavian Prat hops aboard, and they’ll be flying late. The question for her is will be there enough early pace.

1: #1 Warrior’s Moon
2: #2 Oh Pretty Woman
3: #8 California Kook
4: #7 Brahms Comman

Rennergebnisse:

Freitag, 29. Mai, Santa Anita Park Rennen 3

#1 Lets Get Wild – Just missed as the favorite last time out when going this 5 and a half furlong distance on the Santa Anita turf. She draws the rail here, but has enough early speed to secure a good spot. Based on her 2 previous turf starts she is absolutely the one to beat in this race, and will likely go favored. Some of the first time starters may show some early pace, but Lets Get Wild could find herself on the lead taking this field wire-to-wire.

#3 Our Romance – Has been racing very well on the turf in her career so far, however those races have almost all come at a mile or more. She doesn’t seem to be the sprinting type, but being 0-9 lifetime it appears they will try whatever they can to get their first win. She generally comes from off the pace, but if she couldn’t get it done at a mile with that type of trip I don’t think it’ll be any easier sprinting. Races like this generally favor the speed types.

Direkt nach Santa Anita Park – Rennen 3

#6 What a Family – I believe she will be overlooked in this race which will set up for some value. In her only career start on the Santa Anita turf she was bet pretty well before finishing 4^th in that race behind Lets Get Wild. They gave her a freshening out of that race, and she is likely to improve from her first to second start. Not sure she has enough to turn the tables on the #1 Lets Get Wild, but certainly shouldn’t be dismissed in other wager types.

#7 Bella Chica – Will likely be the main threat to the #1 in this race. Bella Chica has been running great to start the career with a pair of 2^nd place finishes and a 3^rd as well. She will stalk the pace and is drawn well to do just that. I just think she has to step up her game in order to win this race, and I don’t think I see that here. She shouldn’t be dismissed, but I also don’t think she provides enough value either.

#8 Fireproof – First time starter for very good trainer Richard Baltas. This filly is out of sire Unusual Heat who excels with turf sprinters. It is obviously tough to gauge first time starters, but she has been working very well leading up to this race, and 25% jockey Flavien Prat hops aboard which is another good sign.

1: #1 Lets Get Wild
2: #6 What A Family
3: #7 Bell Chica
4: #8 Fireproof

Rennergebnisse:

Donnerstag, 28. Mai, Gulfstream Park Rennen 3

#1 Aerodynamic – Is going to provide some value in this race. He has tactical speed from the rail, and really hasn’t run a bad race yet in her first 4 starts. She faced a little better last time out and finished in 5^th but only beaten by 3 lengths. She faces a little bit softer competition here, and should sit a really nice trip on the rail behind the speed.

#2 Little Bella – Has been sprinting going 5 furlongs, and now stretches out to the mile here. The interesting thing is she has been closing in those sprint races, and just missing. She seems to really want more ground and she finally gets it here going the mile. This is a minor step up in class, but that really shouldn’t be an issue. If there is enough speed in this race then she will be showing off her impressive closing ability down the stretch. She is a must use in any wager.

Direkt nach Gulfstream Park – Rennen 3

#5 Henry’s Treasure – One of the favorites in this race, but comes with many question marks. First, her form has not been great on the lead-in to this race. She is 1-16 for lifetime and has had many chances against weak fields. Lately her style has been closing, but she hasn’t been doing that very well and there are better closers in this race. I would shy away from this horse if possible.

#6 Zodiac Princess – Will be one of the main pace factors in here. In almost every start she has been sent to the lead, but she just can’t hold on. She is 1-20 for lifetime but has a number of second and third place finishes. Look for her to go straight to the front, and try to hang on as long as possible. She should be considered in any multi-horse wager.

#9 Generic Mark – Has only 3 races under her belt, and her only win came on a sloppy dirt track. With that said her best race was on turf against maiden special weight company. I think the first time racing against winners though will be a bit too much to handle. She should be considered simply because Irad Ortiz hops aboard this horse, but I would look elsewhere for the win.

#10 Beasichi – Has enough speed out of the 10 post to be able to cross over and get a good stalking spot behind Zodiac Princess. She has been facing a little bit tougher coming into this race, but has been running well. If Jockey Emisael Jaramillo can avoid being hung wide on the turn then she has a real shot in here. She has 5 races over the Gulfstream turf course and has 3 finishes in the top three.

1: #1 Aerodynamic
2: #2 Little Bella
3: #10 Beasichi
4: #6 Zodiac Princess

Rennergebnisse:

Mittwoch, 27. Mai, Tampa Bay Downs Rennen 2

#1 Speeding Starlet – Went off as the favorite at this same level and distance last time out, but finished a disappointing 5^th beaten by 10 lengths. In that race she did break out of the gate very slowly which probably lost her all chance in the race. She also did lose to a few competitors who are in this race as well. It’ll be interesting to see if she can turn the tables. She does all her running from off the pace, but there isn’t a lot of front running speed in this race.

#2 Crown Joy – Had been in great form in 2019 when she notched 7 straight races in the top 3. Since then the form has been on a steady decline, and now they are trying her on the dirt for the first time which doesn’t make a lot of sense. I can’t trust this one making her dirt debut after 26 turf races to start the career. I will have to wait and see on this one.

Direkt nach Tampa Bay Downs – Rennen 2

#3 Cotton Tooyah – Finished 2^nd at this level 2 starts back. She then tried to jump up in class last time out, but that did not work out very well. She drops back down here and could be forwardly placed, but her best races have come on wet or sloppy tracks. If there is no rain on the surface tomorrow then I just can’t trust this one to get it done. On a fast track she has just 2 wins in 35 starts.

#5 Nightstorm – Is another horse that does her best running on the turf course so it is interesting to see this one entered on the dirt here at Tampa. In 5 career dirt starts she has no finishes in the top 3. It’ll be pretty easy to ignore this one, and she’ll likely go off at a big price.

#6 Put Position – Will be very tough to beat in here. She is dropping to her lowest level of her career, and she has speed to be in the race from the very beginning. She is very good on dirt with 7 wins in 12 tries, but she has never raced at Tampa. With that said there are few horses that’ll be forwardly placed and she’ll be one of them. She is a factor the whole way.

#7 Sunset Empire – This will be your likely post time favorite, but there a few question marks here. In 2019 she has been a front running type, and in her last 5 they have tried to bring her from off the pace which hasn’t resulted in good outings. Last time out she went off as the favorite and finished in 5^th. If they do not change the tactics and show some more early speed it could be tough to reel in Put Position down the stretch.

#8 Anditsafact – Is a longshot in this race, but has a real chance to win this one. Her last start out she finished in last place beaten by 24 lengths. That was her first start in almost a year, and they put her on the turf for the just the 2^nd time in her career. It seems as though that was just a race to get her out once and get her a little bit fit. They wheel her back in just 16 days which is a plus, and she has early speed. She could surprise at a nice price in here.

1: #6 Put Position
2: #8 Anditsafact
3: #7 Sunset Empire
4: #1 Speeding Starlet

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