USA Pferderennen Tipps – Woche 22

Samstag, 06. Juni, Hollywood Gold Cup Anaylsis

GRADE 1 $300,000 HOLLYWOOD GOLD CUP AT SANTA ANITA

The Lead:

Seven stakes muscle the marquee Saturday at the Great Race Place, including the 3-year-old spotlights in the Santa Anita Oaks and the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. But the time-honored Hollywood Gold Cup gets the last major word in Race 10 of 11 on a card that begins at 12:30 pm PT. Inaugurated in 1938 and won immediately by the legendary Seabiscuit, the Hollywood Gold Cup has been a Southern California mainstay for 82 years. It was contested as the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in recent years since the closure of Hollywood Park, but was re-branded to its historical roots for this year’s renewal.

Direkt nach Santa Anita Hollywood Gold Cup Rennen 10

Field Depth:

HIGHER POWER and IMPROBABLE are Grade 1 winners among the field of 6. MIDCOURT and TENFOLD are Grade 1-placed, in addition to owning victories at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 levels, respectively. BROWN STORM was Group 1-placed in Chile, while PARSIMONY is Grade 3-placed stateside and a listed stakes winner in the United Arab Emirates. HIGHER POWER has kept the strongest company lines over his last 4 races, though arguably all except PARSIMONY have competed at similarly high levels.

Pace:

Rail-drawn PARSIMONY is a former sprinter who likely will be asked for early speed. BROWN STORM set the tone in the Santa Anita Handicap and should be among the first flight again. MIDCOURT typically has been on or near the lead in recent starts, but the removal of blinkers might put him in more of a tracking position or mid-pack. IMPROBABLE and HIGHER POWER would be candidates to be in a similar spot to MIDCOURT. Given the most likely early speed horses won’t be highly respected, the runner who sits third in this race could be in the driver’s seat at the top of the stretch. TENFOLD will be the field’s pronounced late runner.

Our Eyes:

Trainers who have won 11 this race 11 times are back in the mix, as well as the usual power barns in Santa Anita stakes.

Bob Baffert owns 5 victories in the Hollywood Gold Cup between 1999-2017 and has IMPROBABLE on the strech-out. Last year’s beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness has lost 6 straight graded stakes, but ran a dynamite second to top-class Tom’s d’Etat in a salty edition of the listed Oaklawn Mile in April. He’s had a series of 6 and 7-furlong workouts since then, a sign Baffert recognizes he needs to pump some stamina into this son of City Zip. IMPROBABLE has struggled to close the deal in races at 1-1/8 miles or more. Also note that horses exiting 1-mile races are 0-11 in Santa Anita’s 1-1/4 miles dirt stakes races since 2013.

MIDCOURT was beaten favorite at 3-5 in the March 7 Santa Anita Handicap over this same course and distance. While he may appear to have been ‚hanging‘ when third in that spot, his 105 BRIS late pace figure showed a stronger number than the visual may suggest. He’s posted 103, 113 and 105 late pace figures in his 3 races this winter-spring at Santa Anita. MIDCOURT’s 3 wins at Santa Anita on the dirt are more than the rest of the field combined (2). Trainer John Shirreffs, 4-12 at the meet in stakes ($1.88 ROI for every $1 bet) removes the blinkers and will be give a leg up to 2-time Hollywood Gold Cup winner Victor Espinoza.

HIGHER POWER has not been seen since disappointing as the 5-2 favorite in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup in January at Gulfstream Park. He has worked continuously since then with no discernible break in his training, though Sadler did bypass the Santa Anita Handicap with this son of Medaglia d’Oro. HIGHER POWER finished fifth in last year’s Gold Cup after transferring to the Sadler barn from Mike Stidham. This barn won the 2015 Gold Cup (Hard Aces) and 2018 (Accelerate). Notably, Sadler and Baffert have combined to win 10 of the 18 stakes at Santa Anita on dirt at 1-1/4 miles since 2013, notching 5 apiece.

TENFOLD, third to Justify in the 2018 Preakness, has been steady, but not spectacular, into his 5-year-old season. His best work has come at Pimlico, winning last year’s Pimlico Special over this 1-1/4 miles distance. We know the trip won’t be beyond his scope as this Curlin colt owns 102+ BRIS late pace figures in 5 of his last 7 races. His troubled trip behind By My Standards in the New Orleans Handicap was flattered when that rival came back to impress again in the Oaklawn Handicap. Two-time Gold Cup winner Mike Smith rides as TENFOLD tries to follow 2019 shipper Vino Rosso’s success in this race in back-to-back years.

The Gold Cup longshots figure to be BROWN STORM, fourth after leading the Santa Anita Handicap at 24-1 in his return to dirt; and PARSIMONY, a winner in Dubai over 10 furlongs in February and with a solid 5: 1-3-0 mark on the Santa Anita main track prior to his travels. Trainer Doug O’Neill seeks a fifth Hollywood Gold Cup win if PARSIMONY can pull the surprise. He won this race with Sky Jack in 2002 and then the 2005-’07 editions in succession with Lava Man.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: MIDCOURT is 6-for-6 in the money at Santa Anita since coming to the John Shirreffs barn and returning from a lengthy layoff to start 2019.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: TENFOLD won’t be any better than fourth betting choice and should relish the distance. If the pace is even fair, he’s got a chance to make them sweat late.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $90 exacta MIDCOURT over TENFOLD. $10 exacta TENFOLD over MIDCOURT.  

Direkt nach Santa Anita Hollywood Gold Cup Rennen 10

Rennergebnisse:

Samstag, 06. Juni, Santa Anita Derby Analysis

1. Friar’s Road (McCarthy/Franco)

After three tries—at six and one-half furlongs, a mile, and one mile and one-eighth—this son of Quality Road remains winless. It’s not like he hasn’t been close—second twice in both 2020 starts, including a runner-up effort to #3 Shooters Shoot. Trainer Mike McCarthy is having a strong year and doesn’t fire many ‘practice rounds.’ This guy’s future is bright but he seems in a bit over his head. Top jock Flavien Prat, understandably, moves from this guy to McCarthy stablemate #2 Rushie.

2. Rushie (McCarthy/Prat)

Second of two starters from the sharp Mike McCarthy stable, this son of Liam’s Map has two wins in four starts—a maiden-mile tally at Santa Anita and a first-level mile and one-sixteenth allowance win at Oaklawn Park. He has a touch of early speed, and probably will stalk leaders while riding the rail under cagey jockey Flavien Prat. Baffert’s top Belmont Stakes hopeful and #7 Authentic stablemate Charlatan dusted Rushie by 10 1/2 lengths in the latter’s only loss at three. Rushie has improving Beyer Speed Figures in four starts, always a great sign for a 3-year-old. He’s no toss from exotics consideration but needs a big jump to win this.

Direkt nach Santa Anita Derby Rennen 8

3. Shooters Shoot (Eurton/Cedillo)

Shooters Shoot has had the distinction of chasing #7 Authentic home on a previous occasion. This son of Competitive Edge lost to #7 Authentic by five and three-quarters lengths going six furlongs. Winless in his first four starts, the fifth journey proved the charm as Shooters Shoot hit the bullseye in a maiden mile race over a ‘good’ Santa Anita surface. Apparently, he enjoyed the experience because he also won his next start going a mile at Oaklawn Park in a first level allowance race. Both wins came while close to the lead. Red-hot jockey Abel Cedillo is a capable ‘speed’ rider. Those factors suggest that this colt will force the early issue. If so, expect that early effort to take a toll in the stretch.

4. Anneau d’Or (Wright/Espinoza)

This son of Medaglia d’Oro has been a major disappointment this season. Following a first-out romp in a Golden Gate maiden turf race, he finished second by a head in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita and second by a neck in the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. We couldn’t wait to see what further development might mean to Anneau d’Or. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting. As even-money favorite, he beat just two home in the GR. 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds and then pretty much split the field in the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. There’s little reason to assume trainer Blaine Wright finally has turned the ship around. This colt probably soon will return to the turf where he looked like a monster in his only start over that surface.

5. Azul Coast (Baffert/Rispoli)

Here’s a prime example of a Baffert barn bench warmer who’d be in a starting lineup anywhere else. The son of Super Saver is a stakes winner and was runner-up in the Gr. 3 Sham by seven and three-quarter lengths to stablemate #7 Authentic. Can he turn the tables on that foe now? Probably not. He’s not as fast as others in here, but he did win the El Camino Real Stakes at Golden Gate over a synthetic surface last out.

6. Honor A. P. (Shirreffs/Smith

Here, as they say, is the meat of the lineup. Purchased as a yearling for a whopping $850k, Honor A. P.—by Honor Code out of Hollywood Story–has experienced plenty of hype. First out, he closed well to finish second to the quick Ginobili going six furlongs at Del Mar in August. Next, he dominated a field of maidens to win by more than five lengths going one mile at Santa Anita. His 2020 training schedule, which was pointing him toward the Gr. 3 Sham Stakes in January, was interrupted by a minor issue and connections were forced to wait until March to see his 3-year-old debut. That came in the Gr. 2 San Felipe when second-best to #7 Authentic. This long-striding grinder now has that race under his belt and has trained forwardly since—three seven-eighths breezes and a bullet :59 1/5 five-furlong dash—so he should be ready to fire his best shot. He’ll probably need a bit of pace help to turn the tables on #7 Authentic and clearly is the one with the best chance to pull off the upset.

7. Authentic (Baffert/Van Dyke)

Authentic is by Into Mischief. His dam is named Flawless. So far, that would be an accurate description of this colt’s early career. In three starts, at two tracks, over distances from five and one-half furlongs to a mile and one-sixteenth, he’s whipped 16 foes by a combined total of 11 1/2 lengths. He’s got speed to lead or contend early, but he’s not unmanageable, and he keeps going to the finish. He did display a tendency to drift in while winning the Gr. 3 Sham, but that was corrected in the Gr. 2 San Felipe. Drawn outside in this field, patient jockey Drayden Van Dyke ought to be able to comfortably assess the early pace situation. If he needs to ask for speed, Authentic will have it. If the jockey prefers to sit just of an initial speedball, Authentic should oblige.

So, how in the world can Authentic lose this race? Two things could stand in his way: distance and development—his and #6 Honor A.P.’s. A mile and one-eighth should not be an issue for this colt. However, it may not be his favorite trip either. We don’t know that answer. Also, we can’t be certain how much #6 Honor A. P. has developed since the last time they met. So far, neither of these colts has taken a backward step, according to Daily Racing Form’s Beyer Speed Figures. When it comes to such numbers, every horse has a ceiling. Will one of these two bump against theirs Saturday? A minor note: Authentic has a 17-day gap in his recorded workout pattern between a bullet six furlongs in 1:11 on May 7 and his next work at the same distance in 1:12 on May 24. May be a minor point, but Baffert horses almost never have 17-day gaps between workouts.  

Direkt nach Santa Anita Derby Rennen 8

1: #7 Authentic
2: #3 Shooters Shoot
3: #6 Honor A.P.
4: #2 Rushie

Rennergebnisse:

Freitag, 05. Juni, Belmont Park Rennen 9

#1 Last True Love – Will surely go off as a long shot in this one, and doesn’t seem to have much a look in here. She was a winner of a $75,000 stakes at Mahoning Valley in November. This is a large step up in competition from that race though. She has been racing in stakes races, but is facing legit graded stakes horses in this race.

#2 Gypsy Janie – Is coming into this race on a 3 race win streak. Those 3 races didn’t have any where near the competition she steps into here. She has been very consistent throughout her career though. In 27 career starts she has 9 wins, 2 seconds, and 4 third place finishes. She is certainly capable of finding the top 3 here, but this race is likely too tough to win.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 9

#3 Honey I’m Good – Is a very interesting value play here. In 9 career starts she has 8 top three finishes including 4 wins. She has the ability to race on the lead, or sit just off the pace which will be key here. She has also been improving throughout her career. This is certainly a jump in competition, but she does catch some of the better horses off of longer lay-offs, and could surprise here.

#4 Royal Charlotte – Hasn’t raced since October so it will be interesting to see how she handles the lay-off. During her 3 year old campaign she did almost nothing wrong though winning 5 of 7 races including a Grade 2 and a Grade 3. Also, she has never lost when running the 6 furlong distance which this stakes race will be run at. If she is able to be sharp off of the lay-off then she is going to be one of the horses to beat without a doubt.

#5 Piedi Bianchi – Has won 2 in a row leading into this race including a $100K stakes race last time out at Aqueduct. She does her best running from off the pace, but there is not a ton of speed in here. Also, there seem to be a few better closers as well. She is going to have to take a jump forward in order to compete in here though.

#8 Chalon – Is another one who hasn’t raced since October, and will be another horse that is a likely favorite in here. She is incredibly consistent though with 15 finishes in the top three including 7 wins in just 18 career starts. I think even off the lay-off you will see this horse compete and be right there at the end. She should sit a nice trip just off the pace. Trainer Arnaud Delacour wins at 20% with horses who have been off for 6 months or longer.

#9 Mother Mother – It is going to be difficult to overlook Mother Mother in this race. She has been racing in graded stakes for 2 years now, and has been running well in those races. The big factor for me is she was able to get a race in at Santa Anita just 3 weeks ago and that recent race to get fit for running could prove to be a big advantage. She is drawn well to the outside, and will sit off the pace.

1: #9 Mother Mother
2: #3 Honey I’m Good
3: #4 Royal Charlotte
4: #8 Chalon

Rennergebnisse:

Donnerstag, 04. Juni, Belmont Park Rennen 3

#1 Bronx Bomber – Is sure to be a part of a fast pace in this race. The last 4 outings for this one he has gone up and either been on the lead or pressed the pace throughout. Two of those races results in wins, but there is other speed in this race to be sure. The drop in class here will certainly help, but this could be a race in which the frontrunners back up to the field mid-stretch.

#2 Big Thicket – Has spent most of his career running in route races, however the past 2 tries when sprinting have been very good. When going 6 and a half furlongs he won by 8, and last time out he finished in 2^nd by a half length going 6 furlongs. This is another 6 furlong sprint with plenty of speed, and his running style fits this perfectly. He will be sitting mid pack off the speed and will use his closing kick down the stretch.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 3

#3 Bustin Shout – Is another speed horse in here to go along with Bronx Bomber, and #6 Foolish Ghost. He ran a very good race 2 back when winning by 6, but that was in January on a speed-favoring Aqueduct track. In the return effort he finished 4^th, and now faces other speed in here so I prefer others to win, but shouldn’t be completely ignored either.

#4 San Juan Diego – He is a tough horse to figure out, but I do like the running style in this race. Last time out he finished 3^rd when closing in from 7^th at the top of the stretch. Prior to that his win 4 races back came from off the pace and he won by 3. That should fit perfectly in here, and you are definitely going to get value on this horse.

#6 Foolish Ghost – The 3^rd speed option in this race will likely have a lot of work to do in order to be better than his counterparts. I don’t think he can take this field all the way up front, but he is drawn to the outside of the other speed horses, and he is sure to make it difficult on Bronx Bombers and Bustin Shout.

#8 Shamrock Kid – Is likely the horse to beat especially coming off an easy victory at this level last time out. He is another closer that should sit a good stalking trip outside. My biggest issue with Shamrock Kid is the fact he has never won a sprint race. His best races have all come going a mile or more, and with this being 6 furlongs I have doubts on whether this horse could win.

1: #Big Thicket
2: #Bronx Bombers
3: #8 Shamrock Kid
4: #4 San Juan Diego

Rennergebnisse:

Mittwoch, 03. Juni, Belmont Park Rennen 2

#1 Mandate – Won on the Gulfstream Park turf course 2 starts back. Next time out faced similar competition and finished 5^th. That 5^th place is a little misleading as he lost by less than a length in a 5 horse photo at the wire. He draws well to the inside of this field, and should be able to hold the rail while sitting mid pack and stalking the front runners. Jockey John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher are always tough as a jockey/trainer combination as well.

#2 Smile Bryan – Has tried this level 6 times previously and has been all around the winners’ circle without actually getting there. He has multiple close 2^nd and 3^rd place finishes, and will likely be right there again. Last time out he ran at Churchill Downs, but that was on the main track and off of a 7 month lay-off. He likely was able to use that race to get fit, and will be very ready for the return to the turf course.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 2

#4 Honos Man – Lost his 4 career starts all on the dirt, and then we tried turf for the first time he woke up in a big way and won by 4 lengths. He clearly likes the turf, however that win 1 year ago and that was his last race as well. It will be tough to come off a year long lay-off and expect this horse to be able to compete at first asking. This will be a good turf horse, but I will likely let him run once or twice to get ready before playing him back for the win.

#8 Bray – Is another good turf horse who is coming off a lay-off. His lay-off is less as it is just 6 months but that is still substantial. He has 2 races in his career, and both were very good. He won his career debut, and then finished 2^nd in the follow up start. He has been working regularly so I do think he’ll be ready. Trainer Christophe Clement is one of the best turf trainers, and he wins 20% of his races when horses are on a lay-off of 6 months or more. I expect this one to contend.

#10 River Knight – Is a little bit interesting as a big long shot in this race. There is no other speed in this race, and he will find himself up front for sure. The last 2 races were very bad, but they were also on the dirt so they can be tossed out. Prior to the that he was running in good form, and doing it from the lead. He may not win, but he could provide a lot of value underneath.

1: #8 Bray
2: #2 Smile Bryan
3: #10 River Knight
4: #1 Mandate

Rennergebnisse:

Dienstag, 02. Juni, Lone Star Park Rennen 3

#1 Storms Golden Boy – Is 1-15 lifetime, and is dropping to his lowest level yet. He generally shows speed and draws well on the rail here so as long he breaks well he will likely have to use that early speed to ensure being in the top flight of horses out of the gate. He certainly has the ability to win at a nice price, but I would look elsewhere. I wouldn’t ignore him for 2^nd and 3^rd in any other wagers though.

#3 Lil Capo Caddy – Takes a little bit of a jump in class here, and hasn’t ran since March. He hasn’t been racing all that well at the lower levels either. He has just 1 win and a second place finish in 11 lifetime starts. He does pick up jockey Lane Luzzi which is a bonus, but this horse was just claimed by Joe Roberts and he has very poor stats first time off the claim.

Direkt nach Lone Star Park – Rennen 3

#4 Thirsty Wildcat – Is likely one of the favorites in this race, and with good reason. He is taking a drop in class and this will be one of the softest fields he has faced. His speed figures rank among the best in the field, but I do worry about the running style. He has to close from off the pace, and while there is speed in this race I am not sure if there will be enough to come from far back. My hope is against this field he is able to sit closer, and have a stalking trip.

#8 Prince Jet – Has only had 3 lifetime starts, and the last one he was in over his head in a very tough allowance race. He drops down to a field that suits him much better, and could sit a very nice trip while drawn outside. In his 1 winning race he sat just off the pace before winning by 9 lengths. While he won’t be able to do that to this field, he should get a similar trip and might have enough to hold off the closers.

#9 With The Band – Is another one taking a solid drop in class, and he has been running consistent against better competition. He and Prince Jet should get similar trips, but I think With The Band is a little better. I am worried that neither the jockey nor the trainer have a win under their belt at the Lone Star meet so far. This race seems wide open, but based on trip and past races I believe With The Band is the horse to beat.

1: #9 With The Band
2: #8 Prince Jet
3: #4 Thirsty Wildcat
4: #1 Storms Golden Boy

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