USA Pferderennen Tipps – Woche 23

Samstag, 13. Juni, Belmont Park Rennen 9

Race of the Week: Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park. This is a $300,000 stakes race being run at 1 and 1/16 mile on the main dirt track. It is race 9 on the card, and only features a field of 6 but it is a good field.The

Lead:

The nation’s lone Grade 1 stakes this weekend matches top-class fillies and mares in the Distaff division. The 1-1/16 miles Ogden Phipps will be contested around 1 turn on the sprawling Belmont Park main track. It should serve to kick-start horseplayers‘ attention toward the Belmont Stakes card, now just a week away on June 20.

Field Depth:

OLLIE’S CANDY and SHE’S A JULIE are the established Grade 1 winners in the lineup. POINT OF HONOR owns a Grade 2 score and is Grade 1-placed, while PINK SANDS also has scored at that Grade 2 level. Grade 3 winners BLAMED and GOLDEN AWARD round out the talented six-pack. OLLIE’S CANDY has raced at the highest levels and may hold a slight class edge.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 9

Pace:

Speedy BLAMED stretches out in distance and should be the candidate to set the pace. SHE’S A JULIE, OLLIE’S CANDY and GOLDEN AWARD likely vie just off the first flight. The closers are PINK SANDS and POINT OF HONOR. This pace looks fair to moderate even with a smaller field size. I wouldn’t use race shape as the overriding determinant in your selection.

Our Eyes:

Favorites are 5-for-5 in graded stakes at Belmont to open the 2020 season, according to the Betmix stats, but favoritism in the Phipps does not look like an iron-clad case. OLLIE’S CANDY hasn’t been favored in her last 7 starts, and only 1 of those netted a victory, but she does seem the most likely to garner the most support. She was fourth in last fall’s Breeders‘ Cup Distaff and missed by only a head when runner-up to the talented Ce Ce in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn most recently. It is notable that Ce Ce bounced after that race with a surprisingly ‚off‘ effort in her return at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 Santa Maria. That was a really tough race on those front-end types in the Apple Blossom, and it’s possible its alumnae will all pay some price.

POINT OF HONOR, who was far back in the Apple Blossom before closing for third, didn’t have as taxing a trip that day at Oaklawn. Her chances to run down OLLIE’S CANDY might improve here with a return to Javier Castellano riding. POINT OF HONOR, like OLLIE’S CANDY, will be racing over the Belmont Park main track for the first time. POINT OF HONOR is by sire Curlin, whose offspring absolutely excel on Belmont’s dirt surface, winning 26% from nearly 200 starters — an almost unheard of rate. That increases to 28% at distances of 1-1/16 miles or more on this track.

PINK SANDS has not left much to the imagination in her last few starts. She dropped back to last in 1-turn affairs at Gulfstream Park and just uncoiled a couple of eye-catching rallies to win the Grade 3 Rampart and Grade 2 Inside Information. Those earned 105 and 107 BRIS late pace figures for trainer Shug McGaughey, who returned Code of Honor to a stellar, rallying win at Belmont last week in the Westchester. PINK SANDS is 0-5 at Belmont, but has finished second or third in each of those attempts.

BLAMED and GOLDEN AWARD team up as an uncoupled entry for Bill Mott. BLAMED has alternated wins and monstrous misfires in her last 5 races. She’s ‚due‘ for the regression if that holds after winning a mile Oaklawn allowance last out. She’s got 9 wins in 14 starts, so she gets down to business more often than not. John Velazquez takes over the mount, which could be a great fit for a mercurial mare. GOLDEN AWARD, the half-sister to Kentucky Derby/Preakness hero I’ll Have Another, did break her maiden with a local win over the track in 2018. She’s 9 for 12 in the exacta lifetime and did outrun SHE’S A JULIE in the Shuvee last summer at Saratoga.

SHE’S A JULIE looks to have hit her peak with last May’s Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill. The Steve Asmussen trainee has lost 5 in a row since, increasing the margin of defeat in almost every bid. Her best races are on or near the lead, so perhaps we can forgive her lackluster showing at Oaklawn last time when she leaped in the air at the start. Still, she has not given off positive vibes in some time, including a dull autumn Spinster effort when she had absolutely everything her way on paper.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: PINK SANDS is 17-for-18 in the superfecta lifetime and hasn’t missed a trifecta at Belmont. She’s a pure 1-turn runner out of a dam who was best around 1 turn.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: Difficult to forecast any big prices among these 6, and you don’t want to be fishing below the exacta level for exotics plays given the field size.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 9

1: #2 Point of Honor
2: #1 Pink Sands
3: #5 Ollie’s Candy
4: #6 Golden Award

Rennergebnisse:

Freitag, 12. Juni, Belmont Park Rennen 2

#2 Bustin to Please – Has 5 wins in 10 starts so far in his career so you know you will get her best effort each time out. She is going to either be on the lead or just off it, but she has won both ways which is nice. She draws down along the rail and jockey Manny Franco should get to choose whether or not he wants to be on the lead with this horse or sit just off the pace.

#3 Gentle Annie – Finished in 3^rd against similar company last time out, and figures to get a similar trip this time as well. She will sit well off the pace, and make one run at the top of the stretch. I don’t think she has enough to get a win against these, however she will be passing tiring horses down the stretch and could get a piece of the top 3.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 2

#4 Letmetakethiscall – Is likely to be the horse to catch, and the horse to beat in this race. She has 8 wins in 23 career starts, and it faster than these horses in here. The question really will be is if she can hold off a few of these in mid-stretch. She has been getting caught in her last few, but her numbers are just much better than this group for the most part. It will be tough go against her.

#5 First Forever – Just like the #3 Gentle Annie she will be passing horses down the stretch. There is going to some speed in here, and she shows the ability to close. Again, not a horse to play a win bet on, but certainly could provide value underneath in other wagers.

#8 Bertranda – Will likely be the favorite in this race, but she ran a career effort last time out and absolutely destroyed the field. The #4 Letmetakethiscall was in that race, and Bertranda was able to get to the lead and draw off and win by 6. Prior to that Bertranda had not shown that kind of effort in any race in her career. I am not sure she’ll be able to replicate that effort again. She is certainly tough to beat in here, but I am going to play against her. A lot of times when horses run a career effort they follow that up with a sub-par effort and that is what I am banking on in here.

1: #4 Letmetakethiscall
2: #2 Bustin to Please
3: #8 Bertranda
4: #3 Gentle Annie

Rennergebnisse:

Donnerstag, 11. Juni, Belmont Park Rennen 3

#1 Promo Code – Won the first 2 starts of his career, and has since been racing consistently. In February this horse finished in 2^nd place at this level. He then ran 3^rd as the favorite in a class below this, but he definitely provides value as currently he is listed as a longshot. One issue will certainly be jockey Luis Cardenas who has just 2 wins at Belmont Park. I like the running style, and the value though.

#3 Vintage Hollywood – Finished just in front of Promo Code in their last race together, but Vintage Hollywood has been installed as one of the favorites in this race. He will definitely get a nice stalking trip in behind the lead, and jockey Manny Franco is always reliable. He has 10 finishes in the top 3 in his 17 career starts.

Direkt nach Belmont Park Rennen 3

#4 Who’s In Charge – Will likely be on the horses trying to set the pace in this race. He has 2 victories in 3 starts, and both of those went wire-to-wire. In his only loss he broke slowly and didn’t make the lead which lead to an 8^th place finish. Jockey Irad Ortiz who has won 13 of his first 29 starts at Belmont Park will definitely try to get this one out and force him to the front.

#5 Cavaradossi – Has been improving lately with 2 wins in the last 3 starts. I really like the way he has won those races too. Sitting just off the pace in 2^nd or 3^rd and then taking over down the stretch. There is going to be some speed in this race so it does set-up nicely for this horse if he can continue his improvement against better horses.

#6 Stage Left – Hasn’t been able to win from off the pace yet in 10 career starts. He has 2 wins, but both came on the lead, and I don’t think he has the speed to reach the front in this race. He is certainly usable in wagers that have him in 2^nd and 3^rd.

#7 Blacktop Legend – Won 2 races in a row, and then took a big step up in class, and finished 6^th in that race. He drops back down to a level that he can handle, and is another horse that can sit off the pace, and come home well. I think I have to give this one the edge in this race if the speed comes back to the field.

1: #7 Blacktop Legend
2: #4 Who’s In Charge
3: #1 Promo Code
4: #5 Cavardossi

Rennergebnisse:

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